Manchester United and Sevilla will face off again tonight for a place in the Quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League. The two sides played a goalless draw in the first leg at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium last month.
After a dib in form after the January transfer window, the Red Devils have strung together a run picking up four wins and a draw in their last five games in all competitions. The Old Trafford side have also lost just one game at home (1-2 Manchester City), in all competitions this season. They won 12 of their 15 Premier League home games (D 2), beating the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham. They also won all three home UCL games.
Carrick: “There comes a time when your body tells you it is time to stop. That is where I am at.”
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) March 12, 2018
Manchester United has won 85% (17/20) of their home games in all competitions this season, keeping a clean sheet in 60% of them (12/20).
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Sevilla currently sits 5th in La Liga, after their weekend home loss to Valencia. They are now 11 points behind 4th place Valencia. A big performance in the Champions League is therefore crucial. Their form coming into this game isn’t exceptional they’ve won just five of their last 11 competitive matches. They’ve also won seven, drawn two, and lost nine of their last 18 away from home.
However a significant statistic is that they’ve lost all their away trips to the La Liga top four losing to Atletico Madrid (2-0), Valencia (4-0), Barcelona (2-1), and Real Madrid (5-0).
With United’s exceptional record against top teams at home this season, they ought to win the tie. We’d be banking on their statistical dominance to pick a bet for the match. 14/20 (65%) of the Red Devils’ home games in all competitions have had Manchester United win and less than four goals (under 3.5). That 65% equals an odd of 1.53. The selection would have won in 50% of Sevilla’s games away at Top 4 sides in the La Liga and in 75% of United’s home games vs Top 5 sides in the EPL.
Back Manchester United win and under 3.5 goals @ 2.3.
Four of Manchester United’s last 5 home games including 10 of their wins this season have ended with the 2-0 or 2-1 score line.
We like the best odds look of United to win 2-0 @ 8.25 and 2-1 @ 9.0.
See our older tips here